Phlogiston/Risks of Forecasting and Metrics
Things that can go wrong with forecasting
Some top risks
- Forecasting can provide a motive to consciously cheat
- Forecasting can trigger unconscious bias that ruins the validity of the metric
- The cost of measurement is not zero.
- Forecasting and measuringin general provides a bias toward doing things that are more easily measured (and against people doing things with less tangible benefits)
- The Life Cycles of Failed Projects
- The Costs of Accountability, Jerry Z. Muller
- 'If You Can't Measure It, You Can't Manage It' (False)
Examples of Systemic Bias in Forecasts
These articles include examples of charts where a number of forecasts are made over a series of time, such as years and decades, and every single forecast is completely wrong and visibly in conflict with the observable trends.