Phlogiston/Risks of Forecasting and Metrics

These articles include examples of charts where a number of forecasts are made over a series of time, such as years and decades, and every single forecast is completely wrong and visibly in conflict with the observable trends.

[http://www.vox.com/2015/10/12/9510879/iea-underestimate-renewables The International Energy Agency consistently underestimates wind and solar power. Why?]

Obama’s Plans For Withdrawal From Afghanistan Have Changed Again

Transpo Agencies Are Terrible at Predicting Traffic Levels

Why crude oil prices keep taking us by surprise