Phlogiston/Risks of Forecasting and Metrics

Some top risks
 Forecasting can provide a motive to consciously cheat  Forecasting can trigger unconscious bias that ruins the validity of the metric  The cost of measurement is not zero.  Forecasting and measuringin general provides a bias toward doing things that are more easily measured (and against people doing things with less tangible benefits) 

Additional Reading

 * The Life Cycles of Failed Projects
 * The Costs of Accountability, Jerry Z. Muller
 * 'If You Can't Measure It, You Can't Manage It' (False)
 * CompStat#Critique

Examples of Systemic Bias in Forecasts
These articles include examples of charts where a number of forecasts are made over a series of time, such as years and decades, and every single forecast is completely wrong and visibly in conflict with the observable trends.

[http://www.vox.com/2015/10/12/9510879/iea-underestimate-renewables The International Energy Agency consistently underestimates wind and solar power. Why?]

Obama’s Plans For Withdrawal From Afghanistan Have Changed Again

Transpo Agencies Are Terrible at Predicting Traffic Levels

Why crude oil prices keep taking us by surprise